No Zero Days

I often ask myself if I’m useful

If this were a simulation, would the operators keep me running?
2020 was my best year ever. Again!

My most important friendships deepened. My investments soared. I read interesting books, and enjoyed a lot of diverse podcasts within finance, economics, philosophy and science.

My 2020s decade started with a banner year. Not only that, I suspect it will get even better going forward. I’m getting used to that by now — my life seems to be a neverending, gently downwards sloping, stroll in beautiful and exciting surroundings. I’m turning 49 a week from now, and life just keeps surprising on the upside. It’s true as they say, aging is the best thing that ever happened to the game of life! I’m really looking forward to enter my 50s next year. Yeah, I do expect the game operators to keep me running, if only to see how I actually eventually go, if left to my own devices.

Books
During the past year, I’ve read some amazing books, including Our mathematical universe, by Max Tegmark, Range, by David Epstein, Bad blood, by John Carreyrou, and The hour between dog and wolf, by Johan Coates.

But have they been useful? Too whom? For what?

Tegmark’s book added a new perspective to how research and science in general progress, as well as specifically how very careful measurements and statistical analysis of the distribution of colored blobs in a picture of the early universe add independent datapoints that unveil profound insights about how it all fits together.

That’s what’s always been driving me, the desire to understand the big picture. To understand how everything is connected

—what’s really going on, as Terence McKenna put it. That goes for the economy, for relationships, for physics and cosmology, for consciousness and life and everything else. I want to know how could a beautiful and perfect Oneness explode into a multitude of manifestations, that ever since struggle to regain their resonance?

My quest is to achieve the ultimate perspective, that allows me to understand everything, in order to resonate with the cosmic jazz concert. As humans, playing a game of mortals, we can’t understand infinity or self-containment. For us, there is always something else beyond. A new container. But from some perspective, self-containment has to be obvious and self-evident, lest the pile of turtles will never end — a thought at least as unimaginable as a final container. Tegmark’s book added a piece of the puzzle to that idea.

Secret Teachers Of The Western World added another one, as it elaborated on an idea of mine, of how a bubble containing the universe actually has more and more inside it (on one side of its warped surface, the ”inside”) the smaller it gets. Think about it. Start with a bubble half the size of the universe. Then let it swallow more and more until it contains every galaxy. Then change its form and size to put ever more objects on the ”inside” of its surface, meaning shrinking the bubble until everything is on just one side of the surface.

In that context it’s worth remembering that the physical universe to a hermeticist doesn’t reside outside man, it’s inside him; real reality being just an effect of the mind — an idea, somewhat disturbingly, approaching solipsism. Actually, ideas about the holographic universe, or how every point in the universe is affected by radiation from every other point, carry similar implications. All points are reflected in every single point. Radiation and gravitational waves from all points in the universe all are represented within the pupil of the eye of a single observer. And all others too, of course.

Alchemists were never about turning lead to gold

They were changing their minds

Thus making the (perception of the) world better

Range showed beautifully how a wide range of focused experiences help you in excelling in your final endeavour and passion; as opposed to trying to go straight to the end of the rainbow. Bad blood is a riveting read, and an important reminder that the world is not a nice place. The world is a wicked environment, with as nasty players as the incentives are toxic. Markets are not free and open, politicians and regulators are neither diligent nor trustworthy, and no good deed goes unpunished – as opposed to deceit and fraud. Trust no one.

And finally, The Hour Between Dog And Wolf, showed how smart the body is, if you care and dare to heed its messages, and make sure to care for it properly. My way since a long time can be summed up in my mantra ”No Zero Days”. I repeat the mantra to myself every day. It tells me to do something ”good”, something ”useful” every day. It doesn’t really matter what it is, just get started and do something, a quantum of effort in any area you choose. The rest will follow.

No
Zero
Days

”No Zero Days” is a natural follow-on from my Just One More regime, as they both build on the idea of continuous Processes over static goals, as well as Commencing being more important than continuing. My No Zero Days mantra makes me meditate, practice mandarin, work out in the outdoor gym in -10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) as I did this morning, keep a journal, finish every shower with 20 seconds on the coldest setting, and so on.

I don’t do everything everyday, but I do something everyday. No. Zero. Days. Remember?! NZD keeps me fit, healthy, agile, stress-free, feeling accomplished, fulfilled and happy — and always ready for just about anything.

Chinese, Mandarin
-I’m studying Chinese on DuoLingo

I’ve had the app for a hundred days now, and according to the app I know 375 words/signs plus some rudimentary grammar. At first blush, the Chinese language can have a crude and staccato feel: ”You happy, no happy?”. But that’s just on the surface. After many weeks, it hit me that Chinese and its sign language are more poetic than western languages. Poetic in the way its form transmits its message between its visible components rather than with the components themselves.

What initially might seem discrete, unrefined and coarse, actually is more subtle. Just like with a poem, when you eventually manage to take it all in at once, you can suddenly experience its full impact, thus conveying a more true ensemble of qualia — much closer to the real first hand experience that the communicator is trying to communicate. A stereogram similarly requires a relaxed and open mind, to go from an ugly, grainy chaos to a smooth, amazing, 3-D epiphany.

Investment review for 2020 and my outlook for 2021

2020 was a homerun for my private investment portfolio, thanks to the green energy storage, pre-revenue, start-up Azelio. I visited Azelio’s (and Masen’s) test system in Marocko March 4-5, 2020, when I was having a strange and severe undulating influenza/cold, including persistent dry coughing, that lasted for 7 weeks. I think it was Covid-19, and I tested positive for C-19 antibodies in May. The visit cemented my positive view of the company. However, during the 10 days that followed the stock halved in price from 12 to 6 SEK per share. I bought more, convinced by the visit, and it subsequently increased by 1 000% (a thousand).

My other main holding, the small investment company Stockwik, also performed very well during the year.

Feverish dreams about Bitcoin!
During the flight home from Marocko, I listened to Raoul Pal’s manic musings about the pristine SOV qualities of Bitcoin. I drifted in and out of a feverish sleep but eventually landed with an even stronger conviction regarding the immediate future (6-24 months) of Bitcoin’s price development.

Just like for Azelio, the price halved (and more, from 9k$ to 4k$ per btc) during the early phase of the pandemic. That actually did have me a little spooked, so I didn’t increase my core position until BTC was back above 7-8k$, which was where I had initially established my core position right before the crash.

During the June through September period my conviction was constantly reinforced by news about prominent investors and easier bank custody regulations, not to mention the May halving approaching its 6-month birthday. I bought more and also told my friends to check it out for themselves. Everything seemed to line up for an explosive move (MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, an insurance company (!), legendary hedge fund investors like Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones buying Bitcoin, and so on). I started thinking and talking out loud about at least 50k$/btc being reasonably possible quite soon; and even 100-250k$ being feasible during the second half of 2021. Comparisons to gold, e.g., without gold moving vs. the USD, can be made to indicate 350-500k$ per btc., so it’s exciting times indeed.

882% in 12 months
Anyway, just by owning and occasionally rebalancing my portfolio of Azelio, Stockwik and Bitcoin, I achieved just about a 10-folding (+900%) of my private portfolio over the last 12 months, including a 50% loss in the Covid-19 crash in March.

I fully expect to lose money in 2021. Even if cash is trash and the Fed ups its money printing, there has to be a significant correction soon. I thus am prepared for losing a good chunk of money in 2021, in particular initially. Hence I’m now less exposed to the market, and I’ve reduced my weightings of Azelio and Bitcoin (Ethereum), in favor of Canadian gold and uranium royalty companies.

Nota Bene, this is NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
———-

Summary
2020 was as I said, a banner year — relationship-wise, financially, cognitively and experientially. I really shouldn’t hope to ever top 2020. But I’m so used to it by now, that I can’t help but to think that somehow 2021 will be even better for me. I sincerely hope you feel the same way too, no matter what your 2020 was like.
———-

Covid-19 vaccine message
By the way, I am certain I’ve had Covid-19, even thought there is a slight chance my two tests were false positives. Nevertheless I will take the vaccine as soon as it’s my turn. Maybe I actually had something else. Maybe not. In any case, I don’t want to get any severely adverse long term health effects, respiratory, cognitive or other, and I sure as hell don’t want to infect somebody else either

/The vaxxinatR
———-

Finanskursen (III) – för Swedish speaking only
Alrighty then! Despite being fully occupied with my recently re-started career as a hedge fund manager at Antiloop, I’ll run my 12-week online course in Value Based Investing for a third time. Om du kan svenska flytande kan du kolla in Finanskursen.se för att se om det är någonting för dig. Den kostar ungefär 10 000 kr, så klicka inte om du hade hoppats på något gratis. Den börjar i mars 2021 men du kan göra en tidig ansökan nu här.

Förra omgången blev fulltecknad och vi var tvungna att säga nej (till ett fåtal) som anmälde sig i senaste laget.

Tidig Ansökan till Finanskursen III

Robotar med fingertoppskänsla

http://www.kurzweilai.net/robot-hands-gain-a-gentler-touch

 

Namn att lägga på minnet

Några namn som ger mig hopp på kort till medellång sikt:

Kahn (academy youtube learning),
Dean Kamen (Slingshot water purifier)
Myhrvold (TWR small scale nuclear reactors)
Bill Gates (toaletter som ger överskott på rent vatten och el, TerraPower TWR kärnreaktor med Myhrvold),
Will Allen (Growing Power vertical farming: grow food with no chemicals and no fossil fuels. aquaponics systems, vermicomposting, water catchment, anaerobic digestion to create energy, vertical farming and more. The farms collect food waste and convert it to soil 365 days a year, and, with hoop houses, they grow food every day of the year as well)… och…
Anita Goel (nanobiosym, instant diagnose on the spot almost for free)
IBM har dessutom snart en Watsondriven Tricorder (expert mobile diagnostics and healthcare advice [cancer först] in the cloud) klar och
Friedrich-Wilhelm Mohr automatiska robotkatarrkirurger (da Vinci) som följs av andra varianter.
Camara

På lite längre sikt (men kanske kortare än man kan tro) finns t.ex. Craig Venter med sin artificiella biologi

Big Dog förbereder sig för OS i slägga?

Big Dog förbereder sig för OS i slägga?

Cray är fortfarande med i tävlingen om snabbaste superdator

Cray Inc. has launched the Cray XC30 supercomputer, previously code-named “Cascade,” designed to scale high performance computing (HPC) workloads of more than 100 petaflops, with more than one million cores.

Cray did not specify whether the 100 petaflops was Rpeak or Rmax, or when a 100 petaflops installation might be planned.

China’s Guangzhou Supercomputing Center also recently announced the development of a supercomputer capable of 100 petaflops peak performance: the Tianhe-2 supercomputer, due to launch in 2015.

Exaflop time! (2018)

The [Chinese] government is aiming for China’s supercomputers to reach 100 petaflops in 2015, and then 1 exaflop (1,000 petaflops), in 2018, according to Zhang Yunquan, a professor at the Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences, who also keeps track of China’s top supercomputers.

1 exaflop är i samma storleksordning som 50 människohjärnor. Om själva kartläggningen av hjärnans beräkningsalgoritmer fortsätter i samma takt som på sistone så kommer IBMs nuvarande Watson då framstå som en enkel damspelsdator i jämförelse med AI-systemen runt decennieskiftet. Sen har mänskligheten ändå ett decennium på sig att skapa en AI som klarar Turingtestet innan 2030 för att uppfylla Kurzweils prognoser.

Robotsvärmar för bönder

Tyvärr löjeväckande klumpiga, långsamma och få än så länge, men robotbönder lär bli väsentliga hjälpmedel de kommande 10 åren. De här rackarna behöver hjälp av smarta programmerare från open source-gemenskapen som kan bättra på gångtekniken och säkert även kommunikationen mellan robotarna.

TITAN supercomputer med 20 petaflops

TITAN

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has launched a new era of scientific supercomputing today with Titan, a system capable of more than 20,000 trillion calculations each second — or 20 petaflops

Siri får se upp när Watson blir mobil

The supercomputer [IBM’sWatson] defeated two human champions on Jeopardy! in early 2011. And later that year, Watson gave his first practical demo in medicine and inked his first big contract with insurance firm, WellPoint.

Nu siktar Watson på att ta över andra områden samt anpassa sig till molnet och bli mobil. Siri får se upp.

Lite info om varför Watson behövs:

Broadly, medical information is doubling every five years, and yet it takes some 15 years to enter mainstream practice. Martin Kohn of IBM notes even if doctors “read one article every night, all year, that was relevant to [their] practice, at the end of the year, [they’d] be 10 years behind current information.”

Och varför Watsons teknik fungerar trots en massa gammal analog information:

And although the world’s information may not be digital just yet—we are closing in on that goal daily. Not to mention the shocking statistic that “90% of the world’s data is less than two years old” and therefore mostly digitized already.

Mikroskop mäter 3 picometer

IBMs nya mikroskop mäter 3 picometer eller 1/100 atom. Det är ett viktigt steg mot att verifiera och bygga molekylära maskiner; äkta nanoteknik tack vare picomätning.